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Argentina’s issuer ratings have been upgraded to Caa1 from Caa3 by Moody’s with a stable outlook. The upgrade follows steps taken by the government to liberalize the exchange rate regime and capital controls, adding to the support from the $20bn IMF program. These support the availability of hard currency liquidity and ease pressure on external finances. In April earlier this year, authorities replaced the crawling peg with a new regime allowing the Argentine peso to float within a managed band, initially set between ARS 1000-1400/USD with monthly adjustments. With the aim to rebuild foreign reserves and support hard currency liquidity, this shift introduces higher flexibility to the exchange rate and sustains external debt payments. The $20bn disbursement from the IMF and about $6.1bn from other multilateral agencies will support Argentina’s external debt service. Also, Moody’s highlights that the expected boost from extractive sector and net FDI inflows should fulfil other foreign currency needs. Argentina’s GDP expanded by 5.9% in 1Q2025 and is expected to grow by 4% in 2025 as per Moody’s.
However, Argentina’s dollar bonds have been trending lower recently, with its 4.125% 2035s down by 0.5 points at 63.68, yielding 12.14%.
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