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Argentina Upgraded to Caa3 by Moody’s
January 27, 2025
Argentina was upgraded by a notch to Caa3 from Ca by Moody’s. The upgrade comes on the back of Argentina’s significantly improved credit fundamentals over the past year due to effective policy adjustments, leading to macroeconomic stabilization. President Javier Milei’s administration’s decisive fiscal and monetary measures have helped address severe inflation, depleted reserves, and economic imbalances issues, with the fiscal deficit turning into a surplus by November 2024.These adjustments have also reduced government debt-to-GDP from 156% in 2023 to an estimated 77% in 2024, with expectations of further decline. External accounts have stabilized, supported by a tax amnesty bringing $20bn in assets back to Argentina which has eased liquidity pressures and improved market confidence. Moody’s has a positive outlook on the sovereign reflecting these improvements and the potential for further gains, especially if Argentina enters a new program with the IMF or accelerates foreign investment in the energy sector, both of which would strengthen the country’s credit profile.
Argentina’s bonds traded with a positive bias with its 3.5% 2041s up at 62.8, yielding 10.6%.
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