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Zambia’s Bondholders Brace for Lower Upside Payout on IMF Forecast
January 29, 2026
Zambia has received approval from the IMF for a final $190mn disbursement, successfully concluding the nation’s 38-month financing arrangement and bringing total support since 2022 to approximately $1.7bn. While the program’s conclusion confirmed the country’s sustained delivery on reform commitments and restored policy credibility, the IMF’s updated outlook has signaled lower chances for near-term “upside scenario” payouts for bondholders. Specifically, the IMF cut the 2026 growth forecast to 5.8%, lowered the current-account surplus projection to 1.7% of GDP, and reduced import reserve coverage expectations to 3.9 months. These downgrades directly pressure the nation’s Composite Indicator (CI) score, which stood at 2.58 in April and must reach 2.69 for two consecutive semi-annual periods to trigger higher investor payouts. The Zambian government has indicated it will now shift focus toward negotiating a successor arrangement with the IMF to prioritize long-term growth and productive capacity.
Zambia’s 0.5% 2053s fell by 1.7 points to 71.97 cents on the dollar.
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