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UniCredit CEO Lowers Banco BPM Deal Expectations; Dismisses Commerzbank Takeover Possibility
June 12, 2025
UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel signalled the bank may abandon its proposed acquisition of Banco BPM, citing unresolved regulatory conditions set by the Italian government. UniCredit has challenged these in court and secured a one-month freeze on the offer from Italy’s market regulator. Authorities have asked the bank to halt most Russian-related transactions, but Orcel said the guidance is unclear and whether sub €1bn deposits tied to €6bn in quarterly payments still count as violations. He pegged the deal’s chances at below 20%. This comes just a day after reports suggested UniCredit could win EU antitrust clearance for a potential €10.1bn BPM deal by divesting 206 branches.
Separately, Orcel has dismissed the possibility of a full takeover of Germany’s Commerzbank, citing that the recent surge in its share price makes the deal unattractive for shareholders. This follows political opposition as Chancellor Merz and Finance Minister Lindner have expressed disinterest. UniCredit had earlier acquired a 28% stake in Commerzbank, when its share price was around $14-16. The current price is ~$28/share, and UniCredit plans to convert its two-third stake held in derivatives to equity by month-end. Orcel reiterated that while UniCredit may consolidate the stake and seek board influence, a full acquisition may not be on the table.
Dollar bonds of UniCredit, Banco BPM and Commerzbank were broadly trading stable.
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