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Qatar has been upgraded by a notch to AA from AA- from Fitch. The upgrade follows reduction in its debt-to-GDP ratio in recent years and Fitch’s expectations that the country’s external balance sheet will strengthen further. Fitch expects Qatar’s general government budget surplus at 8.6% of GDP in 2024 (vs. 9.3% of GDP in 2023) and to retain its budget surpluses until 2030s as a result of the North field expansion.
With the upgrade, Qatar is now rated higher than UAE (rated AA-) and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (rated A+) at Fitch. In terms of credit spreads too, Qatar trades tighter than the other two middle east sovereigns. Qatar’s 5Y CDS spreads are at 39.5bp currently, tightening from above 50bp since the start of the year, while that of UAE and Saudi Arabia are at 67.9bp and 53.2bp respectively.
Qatar’s bonds traded stable with its 4.5% 2028s at 99.8 cents on the dollar, yielding 4.55%.