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Bond Market News
Petrobras Expected to Cut its 5Y Investment Plan Capex
November 27, 2025
Petrobras is set to cut its capital expenditure under the current President Lula’s government, reducing its 5Y investment plan due to lower global oil prices. As per sources, the new plan is expected to be unveiled soon, and will see a cut of about 2% from the previous $111bn capex plan estimated for the 2025-2029 period. This marks the first reduction since the 2021-2025 plan under the previous administration, which was characterized by divestments. Despite Lula’s plan to boost investment and the economy, Petrobras is said to be adapting to current Brent crude prices, currently at $62.7/bbl, down over 15% YTD. The core strategy is to do more with less, without increasing debt or altering the dividend policy, as per a source. The revised plan is expected to focus on boosting production and refining capacity by expanding existing units and refurbishing nearly all its refineries. The company is likely expected to increase output from platforms and may reassess projects and negotiate with suppliers to align with the cost-reduction strategy.
Petrobras’ dollar bonds were trading stable with its 6.5% 2033s at 104.1, yielding 5.8%.
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