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Pakistan was upgraded by a notch to B- from CCC+ by Fitch. The upgrade reflects the country’s improved fiscal position and progress in structural reforms, especially its performance under the IMF programme. Pakistan and the IMF reached a staff-level agreement in March upon the first review of the country’s $7bn EFF, as well as a new $1.3bn Resilience and Sustainability Facility, both set to last until 3Q2027. Pakistan performed well on quantitative performance criteria, particularly on reserve accumulation and the primary surplus, although tax revenue growth fell short of its indicative target. According to Fitch, the general government budget deficit is expected to narrow to 6% of GDP in FY2025, from nearly 7% in FY2024, with the primary surplus forecast to rise to over 2% of GDP. Pakistan’s government debt-to-GDP ratio has declined to 67% in FY24 from 75% in FY23, with a further gradual decline expected in the medium term. Pakistan has managed to maintain a current account surplus, driven by rising remittances and favorable import prices.
Pakistan’s dollar bonds were up by as much as 1.4 points with its 7.375% 2031s at 82.96, yielding 11.4%.
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