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Moody’s has upgraded Oman’s ratings to Baa3 from Ba1 and switched its outlook to stable. The upgrade reflects sustained improvements in Oman’s government debt metrics, which Moody’s expects to remain robust even if oil prices fall below $65/bbl. Oman’s government debt dropped to 35.5% of GDP at end-2024, down from 37.5% a year earlier. Government expenditure fell to less than 29% of GDP in 2024 from over 41% during 2016-20. As a result, Moody’s estimate the fiscal breakeven oil price below $70/bbl vs $84/bbl in 2016-20. Interest payments also declined to 7.2% of revenue in 2024.
The stable outlook balances fiscal risks under various oil price scenarios. Upside risks include the potential for higher oil prices due to regional tensions, while downside risks stem from a faster global carbon transition that could weaken hydrocarbon revenues. Longer-term upside risks stem from gradual fiscal and economic reforms and efforts to expand the non-hydrocarbon sector. The recently announced plan to introduce a 5% personal income tax from 2028 is expected to diversify the revenue base further.
Oman’s 7.375% 2032s are up by 0.2 points at 113.7, yielding 5.1%.
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