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Kenya’s efforts to secure a new IMF program are expected to be lengthy, with financing unlikely before the 2027 elections, according to analysts. An IMF team visiting Nairobi this month will review debt risks, but analysts note that the IMF may require partial debt repayment first, making near-term agreement difficult. Kenya’s prior $3.6bn program expired in April without the final $850mn disbursement due to missed fiscal and revenue targets. Treasury Secretary John Mbadi said the government seeks a program aligned with its strategy, prioritizing tax predictability over new levies. Analysts from Absa and SocGen expect reform-linked negotiations to begin only in 2026, emphasizing the need for social acceptance alongside fiscal consolidation. Citigroup strategists doubt any new IMF deal will be politically credible ahead of elections. In the meantime, Kenya is pursuing alternative funding options such as diaspora bonds, privatizations, and refinancing.
Kenya’s dollar bonds reacted negatively, dropping by ~0.5 points across the curve with its 6.3% 2034s down to 83.66, yielding 9.27%.
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