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Israel’s long-term ratings were downgraded by a notch to A+ from AA- by S&P. The downgrade comes due to an increase in confrontation with Iran highlighting elevated geopolitical risk for the country. S&P expects that a wider regional conflict will be avoided. However they see the Israel-Hamas war and the confrontation with Hezbollah to continue through 2024. With this, the spend on defence is bound to increase, leading to a widening government deficit-to-GDP of 8% in 2024. As of end-March 2024, Israel’s gross international reserves have recovered to $214bn, above pre-war levels, which covers 1.5x of the gross external debt of its economy, providing a significant buffer.
Israel’s bonds traded slightly negative with its 7.25% 2028s dropping by 0.2 points to 105.1 cents on the dollar, yielding 5.96%.