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Goldman Sachs has sounded a warning regarding the Chinese banking sector amid the meltdown in the property sector. At end-June 2022, the banking sector accounted for 75% of debts owed by property developers totaling $2.65tn. Trust firms and insurers held 16% and 6% respectively, with brokers and other investors making up the remainder. Goldman said that distress in China’s property market could lead to over $260bn in credit losses, based on a 10% loss rate. Banks could suffer about 61% per cent of the losses, while trust firms and insurers could suffer 28% and 5% of the losses. Goldman further stated that that low levels of housing activity and weak pre-sales have not just hurt developers, but also weigh on smaller banks that are a “weaker part of the banking system”. More than two-thirds of the $166bn in offshore bonds issued by Chinese developers are in default already, as per SCMP.
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