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Bond Market News
Ecuador’s Dollar Bonds Dip on Noboa’s Defeat in Referendum
November 18, 2025
Ecuador’s dollar bonds dipped lower by 1-2 points across the curve after President Daniel Noboa suffered an unexpected defeat in a national referendum seeking constitutional changes. Voters rejected proposals to create a new constitutional assembly, allow foreign military bases, cut lawmakers, and eliminate a state fund for political parties. Analysts view the vote as a major blow to Noboa, raising doubts about his reform agenda and weakening investor confidence after a strong post-election rally. They note that the results reflect public distrust over Noboa’s vague constitutional plans and concerns about proposals affecting the Galápagos Islands. Following the vote, Noboa’s cabinet offered to resign, signaling potential instability. Noboa’s security-focused agenda failed to resonate amid opposition mobilization and recent backlash over ending diesel subsidies. While analysts see the result as a negative surprise, some view the selloff as a temporary setback unless political tensions escalate or protests grow. Noboa still holds a slim legislative majority, but analysts warn it may weaken and potentially push him toward more populist policymaking.
Its 6.9% 2030s was down by 1.6 points to 92.3, yielding 10.7%
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