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Ecuador’s Dollar Bond Rally Stalls Amid Concerns over Potential Political Instability
November 28, 2024
Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa, is said to be losing support ahead of the country’s upcoming elections in February. Once highly popular for his economic reforms like raising taxes, cutting subsidies, and pursuing fiscal reforms, his approval rating has dropped due to power blackouts, slow growth and other challenges. A poll this month showed his approval at just 28.9% vs. 59% in May. Some investors still expect him to win a second term, but the possibility of an administration under Luisa Gonzalez, a protege of former president Rafael Correa, is said have raised concerns of a default. Ecuador’s last default occurred in 2020, with significant debt payments due in 2026. Analysts have highlighted that investors are concerned about the potential for political instability in the coming months. Ecuador’s dollar bonds had been on an uptrend this year through September, but have pulled back by over 10% since then.
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