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Country Garden (COGARD) is projected to swing to a profit of RMB 1–2.2bn ($145-319mn) in 2025, reversing a RMB 35.1bn ($5.1bn) loss from the prior year. However, this turnaround is entirely driven by a one-time, non-cash gain from completing its offshore debt restructuring. The underlying business remains loss-making due to margin pressure and asset impairments. Once China’s largest developer by contracted sales, COGARD defaulted in 2023 amid the country’s prolonged property slump. It recently secured Hong Kong court approval for its $14.1bn debt restructuring plan. Full audited results are due next week.
Its dollar bonds continue to trade at deeply distressed levels of 9-11 cents on the dollar
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