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Bond Market News
Bahrain’s Outlook Cut to Negative by Fitch
February 25, 2025
Bahrain’s outlook was revised lower to negative, from stable by Fitch while affirming its B+ ratings, four notches below investment grade. The negative outlook stems from Bahrain’s rising debt, widening fiscal deficits, and delays in reforms, making debt stabilization challenging. Bahrain faces a high debt-to-GDP ratio, projected to rise from 130% in 2024 to 136% in 2026. Bahrain’s government budget deficit is expected to remain large, around 9% of GDP in 2024-2026, despite improvements in non-oil primary deficits. Fitch projects Bahrain’s interest costs to rise and reach 33% as a share of revenue by 2025. Bahrain’s foreign reserves remain low despite substantial current account surpluses. However, Bahrain benefits from strong GCC financial support, which helps fund its debt, but further substantial GCC funding may be required for debt reduction if reforms are insufficient.
Bahrain’s dollar bonds traded stable with its 6.75% 2029s at 102.28, yielding 6.17%.
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