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ArcelorMittal and its senior unsecured debt were upgraded by a notch to Baa2 from Baa3 by Moody’s. The upgrade reflects sustained improvements in the company’s business profile, including stronger margins, reduced earnings volatility, productivity gains, and a higher-value product mix. Most of ArcelorMittal’s major organic expansion projects are complete or ramping up, with the exception of the ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel (AMNS) India JV expansion scheduled for late-2026. These investments, largely funded through positive free cash flow, will support higher steel and iron ore volumes and improved pricing. Moody’s forecasts EBITDA to rise to $8.5bn in 2026 and $9.6bn in 2027, aided by protectionist policies in key markets, including Europe, Brazil, India, and the US. However leverage remains elevated at 3.9x as of September 2025 but is expected to fall to around 3x over the next 12–18 months. According to Moody’s, ArcelorMittal’s liquidity remains excellent with $5.7bn in cash, a $5.5bn undrawn revolver, and a well-structured maturity profile. Key ongoing credit risks include earnings cyclicality, carbon-intensive production processes, and potential M&A-related volatility.
Its dollar bonds traded stable with its 4.25% 2029s at 100.2, yielding 4.2%.

