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Bond Market News
Ecuador’s Bonds Fall on Likely Arauz-Perez Runoff
February 10, 2021
Ecuador’s dollar bonds fell for a second day after Sunday’s presidential election threatened to throw the nation into economic turmoil. Ecuador’s dollar-denominated 2040s slipped another 2 cents to 43.6 cents on the dollar, the lowest since the serial defaulter restructured $17.4bn of debt last year. The average extra yield money managers demand to hold the nation’s sovereign debt over the US Treasuries has widened by 60bp to 1,251bp, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co indexes.
According to the latest count, an April runoff is predicted between leftist Andres Arauz, gaining a third of the vote and the indigenous party’s Yaku Perez, with 20.10%. Market friendly Guillermo Lasso is third with 19.49%. An Arauz-Perez runoff represents the worst-case scenario for investors due to Perez’s radical stance on economic policy issues, having expressed desires to restructure external debt.
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