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Bond Market News
Venezuela – The $37bn Debt Question
January 5, 2026
Venezuela has nearly $37bn in dollar bonds outstanding currently trading at an average price of 30-33 cents on the dollar, equating to a market value of over $11bn. All eyes in the coming weeks and months will be on these bonds, with the possibility of a potential upside amid the recent events. Venezuela’s defaulted dollar bonds nearly doubled in 2025 – its 9.25% 2027s have gained nearly 70% in the last 6 months, currently trading at 33.3 cents on the dollar. Some analysts highlight potential optimism around a future debt restructuring that could eventually lift recovery values toward 50–60 cents.
Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro was captured by the US over the weekend, leading expectations of a potential regime change. The US indicated it will temporarily oversee Venezuela during a leadership transition, focusing on restoring oil infrastructure. OPEC data shows that Venezuela holds more than 303bn barrels of proven oil reserves, the largest in the world, accounting for about 17% of global oil reserves. However, output has fallen to around 1mn bpd amid US sanctions and years of underinvestment.
Historically, Venezuela (rated C by Moody’s) has been in default since 2017. The US eased secondary trading sanctions in 2023, after which JPMorgan re-included the bonds in its indexes. However, Bloomberg added that trading remains thin and concentrated among distressed investors.
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