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Bond Market News
US GDP Growth Slows to 0.7%; Brent Continues to Trade Above $100/bbl
March 16, 2026
US Treasury yields were broadly stable across the curve. The second reading of US Q4 GDP came in at an annualized rate of only 0.7%, lower than expectations of 1.4% print. This was led by a slow down in the growth rate of personal consumption. The preliminary Durable Goods Orders print for January saw no growth, coming in worse than expectations of a 1.1% growth. The preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March came in at 55.5, beating expectations of 54.8. Lastly, the Core PCE YoY print for January grew by 2.8%, softer than the surveyed 2.9%. Brent continues to trade above $100/bbl on the back of continuing tensions in the Middle East region.
Looking at US equity markets, the S&P and Nasdaq ended lower by 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. US IG CDS spreads widened by 1.0bp and HY CDS spreads were 5.8bp wider. European equity indices ended lower too. The iTraxx Main CDS spreads were 2.1bp wider and the Crossover CDS spreads were 10bp wider. Asian equity markets have opened broadly lower this morning. Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads widened by 1.6bp.
New Bond Issues
New Bonds Pipeline
- JLR $ 3Y/5Y bond
- Sydney Airport $ 10Y bond
- Kexim $ 3Y/5Y bond
Rating Changes
- Fitch Upgrades British American Tobacco to ‘A-‘; Outlook Stable; Removes UCO
- Moody’s Ratings upgrades Rolls-Royce to A3 from Baa1; outlook stable
- Croatia Upgraded To ‘A/A-1’ From ‘A-/A-2’ On Ongoing Economic Resilience; Outlook Stable
- Eldorado Gold Corp. Upgraded To ‘BB-‘ On Improving Cash Flow, Leverage Prospects; Outlook Positive
- Moody’s Ratings downgrades Xerox to Caa2, outlook negative
- Fitch Places Binghatti on Rating Watch Negative
- Fitch Revises Rwanda’s Outlook to Stable; Affirms at ‘B+’
Term of the Day: Business Development Companies (BDCs)
Business Development Companies (BDCs) are specialty finance companies that make investments in the debt and/or equity of small to mid-size companies. BDCs are typically for US-based companies and are closed-end investment companies. The companies they invest in are generally too small or troubled/risky for banks to lend to. Additionally, BDCs must make available significant managerial assistance to certain companies in which they invest.
Talking Heads
On AT1 Hoarding Shielding Market from Global Sell-Off
Richard Hodges – Nomura Asset Management
“If you sell the AT1s I hold then you will never be able to buy them again”.
Fatima Luis – Mirabaud Asset Management
“That’s partly due to the difficulty to trade on Trump headlines and also being quite comfortable with the long term credit risk. Bid-offer spreads would make it difficult to go back at a decent price.”
On Corporate Bonds Cheap Enough for Buying – TD Securities
“While this is no time to stick your neck out, we would not mind a small tactical (short term) long credit risk position” in US investment grade bonds.
On Bigger Price Moves Coming Up in Credit
Danielle Poli – Oaktree Capital Management
“There are opportunities currently to step in, but I think that the bigger opportunities for bigger price movement may be further down the line. We haven’t seen a significant selloff in any way.”
Top Gainers and Losers- 16-Mar-26*
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