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Bond Market News
Ukraine Upgraded to CCC+ by S&P; Dollar Bonds Tick Higher on Optimism of Ending War
January 23, 2026
Ukraine was upgraded to CCC+ from SD by S&P. The upgrade follows the completion of a $2.6bn exchange of GDP-linked warrants. The rating action reflects the resolution of a prior default on GDP-linked securities after a missed payment in June 2025. While a small portion of its commercial debt (less than 2.5%) remains in default, S&P expects Ukraine to continue servicing its obligations, noting no cross-default triggers. Debt exchanges in 2024–25 have significantly reduced foreign commercial debt service needs to about $1bn annually over the next three years, supported by record FX reserves of $57.3bn at end-2025. The stable outlook balances manageable near-term debt service and strong international support. Despite this support, Ukraine’s creditworthiness remains vulnerable and highly dependent on continued external assistance and war developments, S&P noted. Yesterday, US President Donald Trump announced an upcoming meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Switzerland, claiming that Kyiv and Moscow are “reasonably close” to a peace deal. Meanwhile Ukraine, Russia and the US are set to hold three-way talks in Abu Dhabi today.
Ukraine’s dollar bonds were up by 1-2 points across the curve, with its 4.5% 2035s up by 1.4 points to 60.9, yielding 13.5%.
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