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Peru LNG (PLNG) was upgraded by a notch to B+ from B by Fitch. The upgrade reflects expectations that PLNG’s financial profile will strengthen significantly after the Minimum Manzanillo (MM) clause expires in 2026. The expiry is expected to improve price realization, stabilize margins and cash flow, and reduce leverage volatility. Currently, 55% of revenue is linked to Henry Hub prices, but Fitch expects this share to decline to 41% in 2026 and disappear thereafter as more LNG volumes can be redirected to higher-priced markets. Fitch forecasts EBITDA of about $182mn in 2026, followed by around $200mn in 2027. EBITDA leverage is expected to fall from 6.7x as of June 2026 to about 3.0x in 2026 and below 2.0x in 2027. This decrease is supported by recovering sales volumes, favorable pricing and the new Block 88 storage facility. Liquidity is further strengthened by a $100mn shareholder subordinated debt facility, maturing in September 2028. Fitch expects debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) to remain above 1.2x, EBITDA interest coverage above 5.0x, and positive free cash flow through 2027-2029. PLNG’s strategic importance to Peru also supports the rating, given its role in gas exports, limited domestic competition and effective access to much of the country’s exportable gas supply.
Its 5.375% 2030s were stable at 97.9, yielding 6%.
– Vandit P