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Bond Market News
Markets Continue to Trade in Risk-Off Mode
March 30, 2026
The risk-off sentiment continued to hit markets on Friday. The US 10Y Treasury yield touched its highest level this year of 4.48% before easing towards 4.43%. The US 2Y Treasury yield also inched higher initially but then eased by 10bp to 3.88%. Brent Crude continues to climb, currently at about $115/bbl. On the data front, the final reading of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March came in at a three-month low of 53.3, and also softer than expectations of 54.0. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that the war threatens to add to already elevated inflationary pressures. He added that the Fed’s progress on inflation “may be at risk of stalling”. Similarly, Fed Governor Lisa Cook noted that inflation poses the greater risk, due to the Iran war.
Looking at US equity markets, the S&P and Nasdaq ended lower again, by 1.7% and 2.2% respectively. US IG CDS spreads widened by 2.6bp and HY CDS spreads were 31.4bp wider. European equity indices ended lower too. The iTraxx Main CDS spreads were 3.3bp wider while the Crossover CDS spreads were 10.7bp wider. Asian equity markets have opened lower this morning. Asia ex-Japan CDS spreads widened by 3bp.
New Bond Issues
New Bonds Pipeline
- KOMIR $ 5Y/5Y FRN bonds
Rating Changes
- Moody’s Ratings upgrades Sammaan Capital’s rating to B1 from B2; outlook positive
- Senegal FC Rating Affirmed, LC Rating Lowered To ‘CCC+’ Amid Persistent Refinancing Risks; Outlook Negative
- Zhongsheng Downgraded To ‘BBB-‘ On Lower Profitability; Outlook Stable
- Moody’s Ratings downgrades MasterBrand, Inc.’s CFR to Ba3; outlook stable
- Fitch Revises Corebridge Financial’s Outlook to Positive Following Merger with Equitable Holdings
- Fitch Revises Outlook on West China Cement’s Foreign-Currency IDR to Negative; Affirms at ‘B’
- Mozambique Foreign Currency Rating Affirmed At ‘CCC+’; Outlook Negative; Local Currency ‘SD’ Rating Affirmed
Term of the Day: Bonar Bonds
Bonar bonds are Argentinian sovereign bonds denominated in US dollars but issued under local law. These are typically used to manage debt maturities and gain market trust. Argentina issued Bonar bonds in late 2025 and in 2026 (bonds due in 2029 and 2028) under the Milei administration aim to manage reserves, pay creditors, and secure long-term financing. Bonds bonds help cover dollar-denominated maturities, reducing the need to use central bank reserves.
Talking Heads
On Treasury Yields at Year’s High Lure Buyers, Snap Link to Oil
Ian Lyngen, BMO Capital Markets
“The front-end of the Treasury yield curve has shifted away from following energy prices as an inflationary risk, and is now more focused on the downside for growth and risk assets”
John Briggs, Natixis
If the Strait of Hormuz remains closeed, investors will fear “inflation and a 2022-style response from central banks”
“There’s a little bit more of a risk that the transmission of higher fuel prices, higher fertilizer prices, into inflation expectations is, you know, faster and maybe a little bit more durable. I’m worried about that.”
On Dip-Buyers Arriving to Pull Gold Back From Brink of a Bear Market
Robin Brooks, Brookings Institution
“There’s been basically half a year of really crazy buzz and that has to have sucked in a lot of people… I am a reluctant convert to the debasement trade”
Robert Minter, Aberdeen Investments
“Equity market selloffs always bring a minor gold price pullback initially. Gold acts as collateral to meet margin calls, but it usually is a minor pullback: selling stops and stabilizes the price before moving higher”
Top Gainers and Losers- 30-Mar-26*
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