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El Salvador’s dollar bonds dropped by 2-3 points last week, but have almost recovered the move. Analysts have highlighted that the sharp fall in Bitcoin prices has increased the financial pressure on El Salvador. This comes amid the nation’s adoption of the cryptocurrency as legal tender whilst continuing to accumulate it. The recent sell-off has reduced the value of national holdings to about $500mn from around $800mn. Market participants have stated concerns regarding the cryptocurrency policy potentially jeopardizing a $1.4bn IMF loan program. The IMF has already delayed reviews of the program, citing the government’s ongoing Bitcoin purchases and postponed pension reforms. A breakdown in the IMF relationship would remove a key support for El Salvador’s debt. Although the country still has about $4.5bn in reserves and some bonds remain above par, large upcoming financing needs — including $450mn in bond payments this year and nearly $700mn next year — increase the importance of IMF cooperation. Some investors believe Bukele may rely on political support from the US instead, but losing IMF backing could significantly weaken market confidence. Despite improved security conditions and a narrower fiscal deficit, the Bitcoin strategy has made the nation’s finances more volatile and has been a key risk factor for its sovereign credit outlook.
Its 7.65% 2035s traded stable at 105.1, yielding 6.9%
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