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Carnival Cuts Profit Forecast Amid Surge in Fuel Costs
March 30, 2026
Carnival Corp. lowered its full-year profit forecast amid the surge in fuel costs driven by the escalating geopolitical tensions. The cruise giant now expects adjusted EPS of approximately $2.21, down from its previous guidance of $2.48. Its previous guidance was based on Brent crude averaging $90/bbl for April and May, $85/bbl in Q3 and $80/bbl in Q4, based on fuel purchased in March and early April rather than current spot prices. As Carnival typically does not hedge its fuel, the disruption in crude prices is said to hit them more than their major competitors. The company anticipates that more than $500mn in increased fuel expenses will be only partially offset by ~$150mn in operational gains from higher yields and reduced non-fuel costs. On the positive side, demand is said to remain strong. Fitch Ratings analyst John Kempf said that a “higher-for-longer fuel cost scenario will affect Carnival, but the company has the scale and liquidity to handle these fluctuations”. CEO Josh Weinstein reported that 2026 bookings are up double digits, further strengthening a record booked position for the remainder of the year. To signal confidence in its long-term growth, Carnival also announced a $2.5bn share buyback program.
Carnival’s dollar bonds were trading stable, but have trended lower in March. Its 6.125% 2033s are down 4.3% to trade at 99.231, yielding 6.26%.
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