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Bond Market News
Argentina Upgraded to B- by S&P
June 11, 2026
Argentina was upgraded to B- from CCC+ by S&P. The upgrade reflects easing economic vulnerabilities and gradually improving external liquidity. The upgrade is anchored by the Milei administration’s sustained fiscal austerity, with the government expected to post a modest general government deficit of 0.7% of GDP in 2026. Argentina’s improved access to voluntary capital markets enables it to meet substantial foreign currency debt service in 2026 and 2027 through a combination of local dollar bond issuances, official guarantees, and repo agreements with global banks. Externally, FX reserve accumulation has accelerated, with the central bank purchasing over $10bn in the first five months of 2026, driven by strong export performance and agriculture harvest liquidation. The current account deficit is expected to narrow to 0.2% of GDP in 2026, with modest surpluses projected from 2027 onwards supported by a rapidly growing energy sector. GDP growth is forecast at 2.7% in 2026 and around 3% in subsequent years, though performance remains uneven. However, Argentina’s net reserves remain modestly negative and inflation remains above the rate of exchange rate depreciation, which could pose competitiveness risks, the rating agency noted. S&P flags that stress over the next 12–18 months remains likely, but expects the policy mix to be sufficient to avoid default or distressed exchange.
Argentina’s bonds traded stable. Its 4.125% 2035s were at 76.2, yielding 9%.
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